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Research Report on Market Outlook Prediction of China's Power Battery Industry in 2024

Article Source:Chinese business industry | Author:China Commercial Industry Research Institute | Issuing Time:2024.03.22

Directory

1.Definition and classification of power batteries
2.Development Policies for China's Power Battery Industry
3.The current development status of China's power battery industry
4.Key Enterprises in China's Power Battery Industry
5.Problems in China's power battery industry
6. Development Trends of China's Power Battery Industry

Power batteries are the core components of new energy vehicles and an important direction for future energy transformation. With the acceleration of global electrification, the continuous expansion of the new energy electric vehicle market will directly drive the growth of demand for power batteries.


1.Definition and classification of power batteries

Power batteries are the power sources that provide power for tools, often referring to batteries that provide power for electric vehicles, electric trains, electric bicycles, and golf carts. Power batteries have the characteristics of ultra long lifespan, safe use, high temperature resistance, large capacity, no memory effect, small size, and light weight.

Power batteries are mainly divided into lead-acid batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries, lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, supercapacitors, flywheel batteries, etc. Among them, lead-acid batteries have the characteristics of low cost, mature technology, low single energy and power.

2.Development Policies for China's Power Battery Industry

With the implementation of the national "carbon neutrality" strategy and the increasing demand for environmental protection, the country's support for the power battery industry continues to increase. To support the development of the power battery industry, the country has successively issued multiple incentive policies and industry regulatory documents, aiming to promote the healthy and orderly development of the power battery industry. The specific policies related to the power battery industry are as follows:

Data source: Compiled by China Commercial Industry Research Institute

3.The current development status of China's power battery industry

(1)Sales of power batteries

In recent years, the sales of power batteries in China have shown a positive growth trend. From January to February 2024, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 94.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 83.9GWh, accounting for 88.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.3%; The cumulative sales of other batteries were 10.6GWh, accounting for 11.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%.

(2)Power battery installation volume

Thanks to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, the installed volume of power batteries in China is showing a steady growth trend. From January to February 2024, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 50.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%. The cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 19.5Wh, accounting for 38.9% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.8%; The cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 30.7 GWh, accounting for 61.1% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.6%.

(3)Shipping volume of power lithium batteries

In recent years, the growth of the domestic new energy terminal market has exceeded expectations, driving the growth of domestic power lithium battery shipments. In 2023, the shipment volume of power batteries in China was 630GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31%.

(4) Competitive landscape of power batteries

In 2024, the top ten companies in terms of power battery installation had a total of 482100 vehicles, accounting for 96.81%. Among them, the highest installed capacity of power batteries in Ningde Times reached 25.77 GWh, accounting for 51.75%. BYD and China Innovation Aviation rank second and third respectively, with power battery installations of 9.16GWh and 2.88GWh, accounting for 18.39% and 5.79%, respectively. Guoxuan High tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy, Xinwangda, LG New Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, and Jidian New Energy ranked 4-10, accounting for 4.19%, 3.97%, 3.80%, 3.05%, 2.44%, 2.20%, and 1.23% respectively.

4.Key Enterprises in China's Power Battery Industry

(1)Ningde Era

Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is a globally leading new energy innovation technology company, with core technologies in the field of power and energy storage batteries, as well as full industry chain research and manufacturing capabilities in materials, battery cells, battery systems, battery recycling and secondary utilization. Ningde Times focuses on the research and development, production, and sales of new energy vehicle power battery systems and energy storage systems, committed to providing first-class solutions for global new energy applications.

In 2023, Ningde Times achieved a revenue of 400.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.58%.

In 2023, CATL's main products include power battery systems, energy storage battery systems, battery materials and recycling, and battery mineral resources, with operating revenue of 285.3 billion yuan, 59.9 billion yuan, 33.6 billion yuan, and 7.734 billion yuan, accounting for 71.15%, 14.94%, 8.38%, and 1.93%, respectively.

(2)BYD

BYD Co., Ltd., as one of the world's leading manufacturers of rechargeable batteries, has established over 30 industrial parks worldwide after more than 20 years of rapid development, achieving a strategic layout on six continents worldwide. BYD's business layout covers the fields of electronics, automobiles, new energy, and rail transit, and plays a crucial role in these key areas. From energy acquisition, storage, to application, it comprehensively constructs a zero emission new energy overall solution.

In the field of power batteries, BYD has developed a highly safe lithium iron phosphate battery - blade battery, effectively solving market safety problems and promoting lithium iron phosphate batteries to become the mainstream product of power batteries again. Since the release of blade batteries in 2020, BYD has significantly expanded its power battery business, establishing over 20 Freddy series battery companies through Freddy batteries, covering multiple cities in China.

In the first three quarters of 2023, BYD achieved a revenue of 422.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 21.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.47%.

In the first half of 2023, BYD's main products were automobiles, automotive related products and other products, mobile phone parts, assembly and other products. Among them, the operating income of automobiles, automotive related products and other products was 208.8 billion yuan, accounting for 80.28%.

(3) Zhongchuangxin Aviation

China Innovation Aviation Technology Group Co., Ltd. is a leading global new energy technology enterprise, committed to becoming an energy value creator, building a comprehensive energy operation system, and providing comprehensive product solutions and full lifecycle management for the new energy full scenario application market represented by power and energy storage. China Innovation Aviation has a continuously leading technological innovation capability, relying on national recognized enterprise technology centers, postdoctoral research workstations and other scientific research platforms to continuously strive for material technology innovation, structural technology innovation, manufacturing technology innovation, and ecological health development innovation, creating a new energy technology innovation platform with global influence. At present, China Innovation Aviation has established multiple industrial bases and material and recycling bases in Jiangsu, Fujian, Sichuan, Hubei, Anhui, Guangdong, and other regions, completing a comprehensive domestic industrial layout.

In the first half of 2023, China Innovation Airlines achieved a revenue of 12.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.12%.

(4) Guoxuan High Tech

Guoxuan High tech Co., Ltd. is one of the early domestic enterprises engaged in independent research and development, production, and sales of new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries. It has business segments such as new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries, energy storage, and transmission and distribution equipment, and has established an independent and mature research and development, procurement, production, and sales system. Guoxuan High tech's main products include lithium iron phosphate materials and batteries, ternary materials and batteries, power battery packs, battery management systems, and energy storage battery packs. The products are widely used in the field of new energy vehicles such as pure electric passenger cars, commercial vehicles, special vehicles, and light vehicles, while providing system solutions for energy storage power stations, communication base stations, and more.

In the first three quarters of 2023, Guoxuan High tech achieved a revenue of 21.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.96%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 292 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.65%.

In the first half of 2023, Guoxuan High tech's main products were power lithium batteries, energy storage batteries, and transmission and distribution products, with revenue proportions of 68.76%, 27.21%, and 2.70%, respectively.

(5)EVE Lithium Energy

After years of rapid development, Huizhou Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd. has become a globally competitive lithium battery platform company. At the same time, it has core technologies and comprehensive solutions for consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage batteries. Its products are widely used in the Internet of Things and the energy Internet.

In the first three quarters of 2023, Yiwei Lithium achieved a revenue of 35.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%.

In the first half of 2023, Yiwei Lithium Energy's main products were power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries, accounting for 52.75%, 30.78%, and 16.26% of revenue respectively.

5.Problems in China's power battery industry

(1)Oversupply

The installation rate of power batteries in 2022 was only 54%, and in the first half of 2023, this rate dropped to 51.8%, indicating a continuous decline in the installation rate. If battery turnover, in transit circulation, and other non announcement areas of power batteries are excluded, the estimated cumulative inventory of power batteries from 2022 to the first half of 2023 is as high as 268GWh, with a relatively serious inventory backlog. In addition, the production of power and other batteries in China in 2023 was 778.1 GWh, while the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries during the same period was only 387.7 GWh, indicating a significant difference between the production and actual installed capacity.

(2)Severe homogenization competition

At present, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries dominate the market. Although multiple companies have different product names, there is no significant difference in their core technologies, which has led to serious homogenization competition and intensified internal competition in the domestic power battery market.

(3)Huge pressure on technological innovation

At present, the development of power batteries in China is facing multiple technological bottlenecks. One is the limitation of energy density. Currently, the energy density of power batteries is limited to the range of 250-300Wh/kg, which greatly limits the improvement of battery endurance; The second issue is cost. Currently, the manufacturing cost of power batteries is relatively high, and the cost of recycling and reuse cannot be ignored; The third issue is the lifespan. The lifespan of power batteries is limited by the number of charging and discharging cycles, which cannot meet the needs of long-term use. In addition, the safety of power batteries remains a serious issue. Once the battery experiences short circuits or overheating, it can pose serious risks to the entire vehicle and its passengers.

(4)Intensified industry competition

At present, China's power battery industry shows a high concentration, and competition among enterprises is particularly fierce. In 2023, a total of 52 power battery companies in China's new energy vehicle market achieved vehicle installation support, a decrease of 5 compared to the same period last year. Among them, CATL ranked first with a proportion of 43.11%, with a more obvious leading advantage. BYD, with its integrated layout of blade batteries and automobile manufacturing, rapidly expanded and its market share continued to increase. The proportion of vehicle installation in 2023 was 27.21%. With the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market, more and more enterprises are entering the field of power batteries, making market competition increasingly fierce. Under competitive pressure, power battery companies have adopted price reduction strategies to compete for more orders in order to seize market share, which further intensifies price competition within the industry.

6. Development Trends of China's Power Battery Industry

(1) The development of positive electrode materials for power batteries towards high nickel content

With the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market and increasing consumer attention to range, improving battery energy density has become crucial. The use of high nickel positive electrode materials can effectively improve the volumetric energy density of power batteries, meeting the market's demand for longer range. Meanwhile, high nickel plating is also an effective way to reduce costs. Cobalt is a rare and expensive metal element in ternary materials, and excessive content can increase production costs; Nickel, on the other hand, has a relatively low price and can increase the energy density of the material. Therefore, reducing the cobalt content while increasing nickel content has become an effective strategy to improve the energy density and reduce costs of power batteries.

(2) The negative electrode material of power batteries will mainly be silicon-based negative electrode materials

At present, the negative electrode material market still maintains a product structure dominated by artificial graphite and supplemented by natural graphite. From a technical perspective, the capacity limit of graphite negative electrode materials can no longer meet the higher energy density requirements of electric vehicles, and silicon is the key to improving the energy density of power batteries. With the increasing demand for energy density in power batteries, the system of silicon carbon negative electrodes combined with high nickel ternary materials is gradually becoming a development trend.

(3) Innovation in the structure of power batteries towards large modules and no modules

In addition to the continuous iteration of materials, structural innovation has also become an important path for the development of power battery technology. The traditional new energy vehicle power battery system usually adopts a three-level assembly mode of "cell module battery pack". However, the space utilization rate of this module configuration method is only 40%, which greatly limits the available space of other components. Therefore, the structure of power batteries will be innovated towards large module and non module directions to improve space utilization and optimize overall performance.

(4) Diversified development of power battery technology route

The global lithium resource reserves are limited, and the proven reserves of key resources such as cobalt and nickel in China have a relatively low proportion in the world. Due to these factors, the long-term development of lithium-ion batteries will be constrained by the shortage of lithium resources. Therefore, power battery technology will develop in a diversified direction to address the challenge of resource scarcity.